Should You Raise Your Bakery Prices for the Holidays? DO THIS FIRST!

Every December, I watch bakers sell out and still end up broke.

Not because they didn't work hard, but because they priced the holidays off last year's numbers, last year's menu, and a gut feeling about what customers would pay. In previous years, that habit cost you a little. In 2026, it can cost you the ENTIRE season.

Here's why this year is different.

Your costs didn't all go up. They split.

Let me explain...

Egg prices are down almost 30% compared to last year. Butter prices have been lower this year, and cocoa butter prices have been coming down since spring.

So, if you've been keeping your prices the same just to "play it safe," you might actually have more room for PROFIT than you realize.

But here’s the thing… sugar and sweets are up MORE than six percent. Containerboard, the stuff your cake boxes are made of, climbed $100 a ton in the first half of the year, and diesel is up about 50 percent, which means every box, every bag of flour, and every delivery costs more to move.

And let's not forget about LABOR costs. More than a dozen states increased their minimum wage at the beginning of the year, which means higher payroll expenses for a LOT of business owners. And your customers? They're feeling the financial pressure, too.

The National Retail Federation expects holiday shoppers to spend over a TRILLION dollars this season. This sounds GREAT, right? Except nearly HALF of that projected growth is coming from higher prices, not necessarily people buying more.

In other words, your customers are spending MORE, but they're being a whole lot pickier about WHERE that money goes.

So what does that mean for you as a business owner? It means the prices you charged last holiday season might not make sense THIS holiday season. You could be charging TOO MUCH for some products and NOT ENOUGH for others. And you can't know which is which by looking at your competitors' prices.

You know it by doing the MATH.

How I Prepared My Bakery For The Holidays Every Year

I ran my bakery for over a decade, and every holiday season started the same way: with a temperature check. And NO, I’m not talking about the literal weather. I’m talking about what is going on in the economy, in my community, and my very own business.

I would look at changes in my ingredient costs, packaging, gas, labor, shipping delays; and I wrote every one down before I even thought about creating a holiday menu.

WHY would I do this? Because the middle of the holiday season is NOT the time to realize you've been working your ASS OFF for little to no profit.

Once I had a better understanding of where my business stood, I'd go back and re-calculate the costs of my BESTSELLING products. Not every single recipe. Just the five to ten products I knew would bring in the majority of my holiday sales.

I'd look at EVERYTHING. Ingredients, packaging, labor (including all the work that happens AFTER the baking), and my overhead expenses.

And let me just say… EVERY holiday season, there was always at least ONE product I thought was making me good money that turned out to be barely profitable once I actually ran the numbers.

Once I knew what my products ACTUALLY cost, I could start setting some realistic sales goals for the holiday season.

When I say, “realistic sales goals,” I'm not talking about pulling some random number out of thin air and HOPING that it hits.

I'm talking about looking at what I planned to sell, how much I was charging, and how many orders my team and I could REALISTICALLY handle. (Capacity is IMPORTANT!)

For example, one Christmas we sold a holiday bundle for $120. And based on our production capacity, I knew we could make up to 300 of them.

That's $36,000 in potential revenue. But here's the important part… I knew EXACTLY what it would take to reach that number.

Now, let's say you're selling a $50 holiday bundle, but you only have the time and resources to make 20 of them.

That's $1,000 in potential revenue. PERIOD.

You can market the hell out of them, but if you can't physically produce more than 20, you're not making more than $1,000 of revenue from that product.

Make sense?

Once I have those sales goals figured out, have my menu set, and the quantities I was going to produce, I would give myself a six-week runway.

Six weeks gives you enough time to order your packaging (especially if it’s custom), to create a production schedule for your staff, and to set your prices to ensure you’re making a PROFIT.

That was my process for every single holiday for 12 years.

I’d look at what was happening in the economy, double-check my costs, set REALISTIC sales goals, and give myself six weeks to make it happen.

It wasn’t some fancy strategy.

Just a solid plan backed by REAL numbers instead of guessing and hoping my way through the season.

And if you're sitting there thinking, "Okay, Janelle, but HOW do I actually put all of this together for MY business?" I've got you.

I put together a Holiday Planning Workbook to help you take everything I just walked you through and turn it into an actual plan for YOUR bakery.

Because knowing what you should be doing and actually having a PLAN to get it done are two very different things.

Grab the Holiday Planning Workbook here →

And trust me, in an economy like THIS one? Planning, researching, and preparation matters more than ever.

I also know that ALL of this is easier said than done. Doing the math, researching your costs, and figuring out what to charge takes TIME. And if there’s one thing business owners never seem to have enough of, it’s THAT.

So what happens?

We put it off. We tell ourselves we’ll get to it eventually, and instead we pour our time, talent, and efforts into things that feel more urgent. Fulfilling orders, responding to customers, creating content, and trying to keep up with EVERYTHING else.

I get it, because I’ve been there.

But what good is being booked and busy if all that HARD work isn’t actually making you money?

You could be spending hours upon hours making products that are barely even profitable. Or worse, products that are actually COSTING you money.

That’s EXACTLY why I built Costli.

To take the complicated, time-consuming math OFF your plate so you can spend less time buried in spreadsheets and busy work and MORE time doing what you love.

All while knowing what your products ACTUALLY cost, what you need to charge, and whether the work you're putting in is actually paying off.

You owe it to yourself for your time, talent, and hard work to be PROFITABLE.

So before you finalize your holiday menu, buy all the things, and pour energy into marketing, start with your THREE bestselling products.

Know your costs. Price for profit. And make sure all that hard work is actually making you MONEY.

>>> Take me to Costli!

Xo, Janelle